2026 Housing Market Forecast: National Outlook + Colorado

As we head into 2026, most forecasters agree on one core theme: the U.S. housing market is likely to “thaw,” not surge. The direction of travel looks better than the last couple of years—but affordability constraints and inventory realities still put a cap on how fast things can change.

Below is a data-driven look at what major housing economists and platforms are projecting nationally, how that filters down to Colorado, and where my own 2026 outlook lands.

National housing forecast for 2026: what the major forecasters expect

1) Mortgage rates: likely “low-to-mid 6%,” with debate on how often we see sub-6%

Most forecasts cluster around ~6% to ~6.3% for 30-year fixed rates in 2026:

• NAR: mortgage rates “roughly 6%” in 2026. National Association of REALTORS®

• Realtor.com: average 6.3% (and ~6.3% year-end). Realtor

• Redfin: average 6.3% in 2026; dips below 6% may happen, but not “for any meaningful period.” Redfin

• Fannie Mae: expects rates to end 2026 around 5.9% (with 2025 ending ~6.4%). Fannie Mae

What that means: if rates stay near 6% rather than falling dramatically, the market can improve—but it won’t “snap back” to the frenzied pace of the 3% era.

2) Home prices: most forecasts call for modest growth nationally (not a crash)

National projections mostly live in the flat-to-low-single-digit range:

• Zillow: U.S. home values +1.2% in 2026. Zillow

• Redfin: median U.S. sale price +1% year-over-year in 2026. Redfin

• Realtor.com: existing-home median price appreciation +2.2%. Realtor

• NAR: price growth around +4% in 2026. National Association of REALTORS®

Takeaway: forecasters aren’t calling for a broad national drop—more like slower, more “normal” appreciation with pockets of softness depending on local supply and demand.

3) Home sales: a gradual rebound, with the “how much” varying widely

Sales projections range from small gains to double-digit improvement:

• Realtor.com: existing-home sales +1.7% to 4.13M. Realtor

• Zillow: 4.26M existing-home sales (+4.3%). Zillow

• NAR: existing-home sales +14%. National Association of REALTORS®

• Fannie Mae: total new + existing home sales 5.16M in 2026 (vs. 4.72M in 2025). Fannie Mae

Why the spread? The biggest swing factor is how many homeowners “unlock” and move as rates ease and life events pile up.

Colorado housing forecast for 2026: what the data suggests heading in

Colorado entered late 2025 looking a lot more “normal” than the boom years—more listings, longer days on market, and more negotiating room.

What Colorado looked like heading into 2026 (statewide snapshot)

From the Colorado Association of REALTORS® (CAR), November data showed:

• Homes averaging 68 days on market (up year over year)

• Buyers closing about 5.7% below original list price

• Active inventory around 30,803 listings (about 4.3 months of supply)

• Statewide median sale price around $550,000, roughly flat year over year Colorado Association of REALTORS

Translation: Colorado has been moving toward a more balanced market—good news for buyers who felt locked out.

Metro-level expectations (Realtor.com 2026 metro projections)

Realtor.com’s metro forecast shows some Colorado metros with mild declines in 2026 (a meaningful contrast to the national “modest growth” narrative):

• Denver-Aurora-Lakewood: sales -2.9%, prices -3.4% (2026 forecast) Realtor

• Colorado Springs: sales -4.2%, prices -0.4% Realtor

Important context: these are model-based projections—not guarantees. But they align with what many Coloradans felt in 2025: affordability is still tight, and buyers have become more selective.

My 2026 opinion: a “selective recovery,” with Colorado more mixed than the national headlines

Here’s where my outlook lands, using the forecasts above as the guardrails.

My national take for 2026

I expect 2026 to look like:

• Rates: mostly low-to-mid 6%, with occasional dips (but not a sustained return to sub-6% across the year). Redfin+2Realtor+2

• Prices: flat to low-single-digit appreciation nationally, with the strongest resilience where inventory remains tight and jobs are stable. Zillow+2Redfin+2

• Sales: better than 2024–2025, but still below “normal” pre-pandemic levels—more of a slow unfreezing than a boom. National Association of REALTORS®+2Zillow+2

My Colorado take for 2026 (statewide + Front Range)

Colorado, in my view, is set up for a year where:

• Negotiations stay normal (concessions, inspection leverage, realistic pricing matter—because buyers have choices). Colorado Association of REALTORS

• Price growth is more “zip-code specific” than headline-driven. Some neighborhoods will behave like 2021 is long gone; others will still hold value well because replacement cost and desirable locations create a floor.

• Condos/townhomes may remain choppier than single-family in certain submarkets, especially where HOA fees and insurance costs pressure monthly payments (something CAR commentary has repeatedly flagged as a constraint). Colorado Association of REALTORS

• Denver metro feels the most “mixed,” consistent with Realtor.com’s forecast calling for softer prices and slightly lower sales. Realtor

If you want a simple framing: 2026 is likely a “move-up and life-event market,” not a “panic and FOMO market.”

What buyers and sellers should watch in 2026 (the few indicators that matter most)

1. Mortgage-rate trend (monthly, not daily): small shifts change payments dramatically. Realtor+1

2. Inventory & months of supply: more supply usually means more negotiating power. Colorado Association of REALTORS

3. Price reductions + concessions: the real-time “temperature check” of demand. Colorado Association of REALTORS

4. Rent direction: if rents soften, it can reduce urgency for first-time buyers (and change investor math). Realtor+1